Alle boeken van schrijver Philip E. Tetlock (1-10)

Bekijk hier alle boeken van Philip E. Tetlock. De boekenlijst is gerangschikt volgens de recente verkoopcijfers, dus de best verkochte boeken van de voorbije maand staan bovenaan.

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Engels | Druk: illustrated edition | Paperback | 9780691027913
Boek cover Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics van Phillip E Tetlock (Paperback)
Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps...
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Engels | Druk: New edition | Paperback | 9780691128719
Boek cover Expert Political Judgment van Philip E. Tetlock (Paperback)
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by...
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Engels | E-book | 9781448166596
4.6 op 5 sterren
Boek cover Superforecasting van Philip Tetlock (Onbekend)
The Art and Science of Prediction
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock...
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Nederlands | Druk: 1 | E-book | 9789047006541
3 op 5 sterren
Boek cover Super voorspellers van Philip Tetlock (Onbekend)
goed voorspellen is een manier van denken - en iedereen kan het leren
Veel van onze beslissingen worden gestuurd door verwachtingen over de toekomst. Of je nu beleidsmaker bent, op de beurs handelt, een product wilt lanceren of een carrièreswitch overweegt, je doet voorspellingen. Het probleem is: we zijn er niet erg goed in. Philip Tetlock ontdekte na langlopend onderzoek dat er mensen zijn die het wel degelijk bij het juiste eind hebben. Het zijn geen experts, maar gewone mensen die opvallend vaak juiste voorspellingen doen: supervoorspellers. In dit baanbrekende boek laten Tetlock en Gardner zien hoe iedereen van hen kan leren om een betere voorspeller te...
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Engels | Druk: 1 | Paperback | 9780804136716
Boek cover Superforecasting van Philip E. Tetlock (Paperback)
The Art and Science of Prediction
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER &; NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST &;The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.&;&;Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week&;s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts&; predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important...
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Engels | E-book | 9781785673405
Boek cover A Joosr Guide to... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner: The Art and Science of Prediction van Joosr (Onbekend)
In today's fast-paced world, it's tough to find the time to read. But with Joosr guides, you can get the key insights from bestselling non-fiction titles in less than 20 minutes. Whether you want to gain knowledge on the go or find the books you'll love, Joosr's brief and accessible eBook summaries fit into your life. Find out more at joosr.com. We all make forecasts in our daily lives, whether we're investing in the stock market or simply planning our weekly food shop. These forecasts shape our future, but unfortunately we aren't very good at making them. So what can we do to improve our...
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Engels | Druk: Revised edition | Paperback | 9780691175973
Boek cover Expert Political Judgment van Philip E. Tetlock (Paperback)
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are...
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Engels | E-book | 1230004361794
Boek cover SUMMARY - Superforecasting: van Shortcut Edition (Onbekend)
The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. *By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts. *You will also discover that : many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify; the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations; the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities; any forecast must be supported by a numerical probability, an assumption with clearly defined terms; a good forecaster is rigorous,...
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Engels | E-book | 1230004405597
Boek cover SUMMARY - Expert Political Judgment: van Shortcut Edition (Onbekend)
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock
* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. *By reading this summary, you will discover why being an expert in politics does not allow you to make more reliable forecasts than the average person. *You will also learn : that the analysis of 30,000 forecasts has determined the real value of political predictions; that the forecasts of its experts have been put in competition with each other and compared to the forecasts made by algorithms; that opposing political speeches does not make democracy work; that...
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Franstalig | E-book | 9791037503152
Boek cover Comment être visionnaire van Philip E. Tetlock (Onbekend)
" Les techniques et les façons de penser exposées dans ce livre sont précieuses pour quiconque s'intéresse à ce que l'avenir nous réserve. En d'autres termes, pour tout le monde. " The Economist Tout le monde aimerait connaître l'avenir pour prendre les bonnes décisions politiques, économiques, ou pour lancer un nouveau produit. Malheureusement, nous avons tendance à être de piètres prévisionnistes. Dans une célèbre étude, qui a duré près de vingt ans, le professeur Philip Tetlock a montré que les prédictions des plus grands experts étaient la plupart du temps...
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